Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.092116 0.102320 0.112775 0.124262 0.136502 0.149129 0.163113
2025-02-09 0.075054 0.090271 0.106653 0.125478 0.146392 0.168799 0.194504
2025-02-16 0.061339 0.079450 0.099843 0.124208 0.152236 0.183194 0.219698
2025-02-23 0.055108 0.075926 0.100238 0.130187 0.165562 0.205523 0.253582
2025-03-02 0.049786 0.072611 0.100161 0.135021 0.177135 0.225607 0.284850
2025-03-09 0.041922 0.065156 0.094234 0.132086 0.178895 0.233803 0.302002
2025-03-16 0.034996 0.058084 0.088057 0.128176 0.178905 0.239478 0.315834
2025-03-23 0.032352 0.056440 0.088573 0.132459 0.188835 0.256988 0.343776
2025-03-30 0.029482 0.054144 0.087964 0.135085 0.196551 0.271746 0.368427
2025-04-06 0.027583 0.053032 0.088787 0.139466 0.206438 0.289181 0.396420
2025-04-13 0.024425 0.049698 0.086267 0.139166 0.210138 0.298834 0.414838
2025-04-20 0.024133 0.050758 0.089940 0.147275 0.224853 0.322416 0.450655
2025-04-27 0.021675 0.048294 0.088622 0.148790 0.231349 0.336259 0.475281
2025-05-04 0.019778 0.046587 0.088337 0.151751 0.239883 0.352924 0.503812
2025-05-11 0.017151 0.043319 0.085474 0.150892 0.243190 0.362866 0.523958
2025-05-18 0.016567 0.043621 0.088073 0.157911 0.257286 0.386924 0.562238
2025-05-25 0.015726 0.043341 0.089697 0.163485 0.269428 0.408514 0.597516
2025-06-01 0.013242 0.039583 0.085478 0.160181 0.269060 0.413518 0.611391
2025-06-08 0.010881 0.035675 0.080693 0.155743 0.266872 0.415939 0.621809
2025-06-15 0.010299 0.035428 0.082019 0.160619 0.277910 0.436079 0.655383
2025-06-22 0.009474 0.034530 0.082151 0.163604 0.286239 0.452622 0.684351
2025-06-29 0.009002 0.034376 0.083553 0.168578 0.297472 0.473160 0.718687
2025-07-06 0.007856 0.032444 0.081659 0.168238 0.300932 0.483135 0.739145